The Fight Network

The UFC lightweight title is up for grabs this Saturday night at UFC 107 as B.J. Penn, “The Prodigy,” faces his toughest lightweight challenger to date in Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez.

Let’s break down all the action on tap for UFC 107, which emanates from the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn.

Main Card:

B.J. Penn (14-5-1) vs. Diego Sanchez (21-2)
Penn, the world's consensus best lightweight and a top pound-for-pound contender, is the perfect example of a well-rounded mixed martial artist.

An Andre Pederneiras black belt with a granite chin coupled with world-class boxing, devastating power, strong wrestling skills and crafty takedown defense, Penn has stepped up his previously questionable conditioning to become a true wrecking machine at 155 pounds.

A loss to welterweight torchbearer Georges St-Pierre aside, Penn has been indestructible when fighting at his natural weight. Joe Stevenson, Sean Sherk and Kenny Florian, all top contenders when they faced Penn, were fighting in a different league against the champ.

But Sanchez, a former welterweight title contender, is the perfect opponent with a lot of momentum on his side since dropping down. He will have a two-inch advantage in both height and reach, but that should be a non-factor, as he will want no part of Penn’s striking.

Sanchez has a solid base on his feet with dangerous speed, footwork and knockout power, but you can expect Penn to outwork him. The Hawaiian will pump out the jab and find his range quickly. Sanchez can land some effective leg kicks and showcase some of his cat-like speed, but he risks getting caught with a punishing shot at any time, consequently seeing his lightweight title aspirations vanish before his eyes.

The man known as “Nightmare” would be best suited trying to land some quick takedowns and work Penn over from top position. In retrospect, the strategy is dangerous given Penn’s world-renowned rubber guard and all-around submission game. However, Sanchez has polished his own BJJ with Saulo and Xande Ribeiro and could administer some ground-and-pound if he finds himself on top of Penn. As the fight progresses into the championship forth and fifth rounds, Penn could be worn down, especially if he absorbs a beating like G.S.P. dished out.

On the contrary, however, Penn can also secure a takedown, seamlessly at that, and drop some bombs of his own. In fact, Penn being able to take Sanchez down is more of a safe bet than vice-versa.

Compared to Sanchez, Penn is living proof of the old adage “whatever you can do, I can do better.”

That being said, it’s easy to bank on Penn as the favourite going into this lightweight title clash. Sanchez can survive until the latter rounds, but Penn will likely pounce the moment Sanchez makes a mistake and put him away with his fists of fury.

After Sanchez, I would not want to be Gray Maynard or Frankie Edgar, both of whom are inching closer to an eventual lightweight title shot.
Verdict: Penn via TKO, Round 2

Frank Mir (12-4) vs. Cheick Kongo (14-5-1)
In the ultimate clash of styles, two heavyweights with opposite strengths will attempt to rebound from recent losses.

Former UFC heavyweight champion Mir is among the premier BJJ practitioners currently competing in the division. With improved muay thai skills and confidence in the octagon, Mir should have been facing Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira to set the record straight rather than being able to easily capitalize on a gross mismatch against Kongo.

No disrespect to the Frenchman, who has dangerous striking and killer instinct when his opponents hit the ground, but Mir will exploit his obvious weakness -- his grappling, or lack thereof.

Mir has already criticized Kongo for being a pretender in the heavyweight division. He claims Kongo has not evolved since making his mark in the UFC with a shocking unanimous decision win over Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. And he could be right.

Kongo struggled against Heath Herring and Cain Velasquez, and has also had the benefit of being fed lower-tier fighters like Mostapha al Turk, Dan Evensen and Antoni Hardonk.

Mir has already proven himself to be one of the top 10 heavyweight fighters in the sport. The BJJ specialist will eventually secure the takedown he desires and submit his foe with his hold of choice.

Kongo has been prone to takedowns and it will only be a matter of time against Mir. His strategy is to scramble back to his feet and avoid engaging Mir on the ground.

Mir gets the easy win and a rematch with Nogueira makes more sense than the eventual Nogueira-Cain Velasquez bout. Meanwhile, Kongo may get a chance at redemption in the division before the inevitable happens and he is served his walking papers. Kongo-Gilbert Yvel, anyone?
Verdict: Mir via Submission, Round 1

Kenny Florian (11-4) vs. Clay Guida (25-10)
In a fight that could match the main event in terms of entertaining action, Florian and Guida are hoping to cement their place among the division’s elite.

Florian is a tactical competitor with stellar gameplanning and dangerous tools, including razor-sharp, fight-ending elbows.

When it comes to strategic fighting, Guida is not quite there. He often engages in dangerous slugfests with superior strikers, like he did against Diego Sanchez.

However, Guida is one of the most relentless fighters you will ever see. He will have the wrestling edge and once he gets his hands around Florian, the takedown is inevitable.

But Guida, who doesn’t benefit from the same high-level training partners as Florian, needs to step up the diversity of his camp to improve on his feet and refine his ground game.

Off his back, the BJJ black belt Florian can use submissions and bring his elbows into play. If Roger Huerta was able to submit Guida, Florian can do the same.

Moreover, Florian’s conditioning and confidence is higher than ever since joining Zahabi MMA in Montreal to train alongside Georges St-Pierre.

In the end, Florian should be able to survive the feverish pace set early by Guida before breaking him down in the third round. If Guida makes it the distance, expect a split decision that could go either way.
Verdict: Florian via TKO, Round 3

Jon Fitch (19-3) vs. Mike Pierce (10-1)
In a fight that doesn’t really make sense from a matchmaker's standpoint, the No. 2-ranked welterweight in the world will face a 10-1 prospect.

A solid collegiate wrestling standout, Pierce trounced Brock Larson in his UFC debut, but he will find out soon enough that Fitch is no Larson.

Since going 2-2 to start his MMA career, Fitch has matured into one of the best all-around fighters in the sport and is eager for another shot at G.S.P. Fitch has witnessed his UFC 107 opponent downgraded as well. First, it was BJJ wizard Ricardo Almeida. Then it was a chance to go 2-0 against Thiago Alves. Now, he faces a newcomer with little to no shot of winning.

To sum things up, Fitch is a better striker and wrestler, which means he will get Pierce down and punish him en route to a unanimous decision.

Fitch has been quoted saying that he “hates decisions,” but if his past record is any indication, he will grind out a win where he feels most comfortable, which is on top of his opponent.
Verdict: Fitch via Unanimous Decision

Paul Buentello (27-10) vs. Stefan Struve (18-3)
“The Headhunter” Buentello, fighting out of the American Kickboxing Academy, looked fantastic in his last two wins over Gary Goodridge and Kirill Sidelnikov under the Affliction banner. Buentello takes on one of the heavyweight division’s youngest hopefuls in six-foot-11 grappler Struve, who goes by the nickname “Skyscraper.”

While impressive against previously unbeaten Chase Gormley, Struve took a beating against Cain Velasquez earlier this year and his chin has been in question ever since.

Buentello, a powerful puncher, avoids most of Struve’s takedown attempts and just barely outworks the 21-year-old Dutchman to win a split decision.
Verdict: Buentello via Split Decision

Preliminary Card:

Wilson Gouveia (12-6) vs. Alan Belcher (14-6)    
In a bout worthy of being on the televised card, the BJJ black belt and ATT member Gouveia faces the confident American Belcher. Both fighters are willing to engage in dangerous exchanges on their feet to please the live crowd. This one is unlikely to take place on the mat and fans will be treated to a back-and-forth slugfest with the more powerful fighter – Gouveia – emerging victorious.
Verdict: Gouveia via Split Decision

Shane Nelson (12-4) vs. Matt Wiman (10-5)
Both lightweights are on the rebound trail and in desperate need of a victory after losses to Aaron Riley and Sam Stout, respectively. Nelson, a mediocre striker who has yet to show off his BJJ skill acquired under B.J. Penn, will struggle to stop Wiman from dropping him flat on his back. Wiman overpowers Nelson and outwrestles him for the unanimous decision.
Verdict: Wiman via Unanimous Decision

Johny Hendricks (6-0) vs. Ricardo Funch (7-0)
The  two-time Division I wresting champion Hendricks was impressive when he knocked out Amir Sadollah to improve his undefeated streak, but Funch is a game BJJ player who is also keen on maintaining his perfect record. Funch will have a real tough time taking Hendricks down and if it remains standing, the heavy-handed blows of Hendricks will mean nap time for the newcomer.
Verdict: Hendricks via TKO, Round 1

Rousimar Palhares (9-2) vs. Lucio Linhares (13-4)
In a battle of high-level BJJ black belts, Palhares will possess a significant edge in power over the debuting M-1 veteran. Neither man has great hands, so we can expect to see a grappling clinic that should favour Palhares given his size advantage. Palhares should easily ride him out with top control to claim his third victory in the octagon, although don't put it past Palhares to win via TKO stoppage.
Verdict: Palhares via Unanimous Decision

DaMarques Johnson (9-7) vs. Edgar Garcia (7-1)
Garcia lost his UFC debut to Brad Blackburn in a controversial split decision, while James Wilks vanquished Johnson in the finale of the ninth season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” This undercard battle features two hungry welterweights eager to retain a spot on the UFC roster. Johnson has many weaknesses, notably his defense. Edgar should be able to take advantage and catch Johnson with his hands down to improve his UFC record to 1-1.
Verdict: Garcia via TKO, Round 2

Kevin Burns (7-3) vs. T.J. Grant (14-3)
The Canadian Grant has had a tough foray into the UFC with a hard-fought decision win over Ryo Chonan and an utter domination by Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 100. Burns has already proven himself by hanging with one of the division’s best fighters in Anthony Johnson. Standing, Burns possesses the clear advantage, which means Grant will shoot in for takedown after takedown in hopes of outgrappling Burns on the mat. However, Burns can handle himself on the ground and should be able to escape any dangerous situations to get this fight back to where he is most comfortable. When it's all said and done, Burns outworks Grant for the decision.
Verdict: Burns via Unanimous Decision