Breaking Down UFC 108
The Ultimate Fighting Championship kicks off its 2010 calendar with UFC 108 this Saturday night on pay-per-view.
Seemingly cursed from the get-go, UFC 108 has been plagued by numerous injuries.
UFC 108 was set to feature a blockbuster middleweight title bout between Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort. It had all the makings of a year-end blowout show.
Unfortunately, that fight dissolved along with a number of other bouts fans had been eagerly anticipating.
A plethora of changes to the line-up have hurt this show considerably, including Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira getting injured and postponing his main card encounter with Cain Velasquez, Gabriel Gonzaga getting replaced by Gilbert Yvel against top contender Junior dos Santos, Dustin Hazelett stepping in for Carlos Condit against Paul Daley, Sean Sherk getting replaced by fading UFC vet Duane Ludwig in a main card battle against Jim Miller, and finally, Jacob Volkmann replacing Rory Markham against Martin Kampmann on the preliminary card.
All changes aside, UFC 108 will emanate from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas this Saturday night, and the headliner pitting Rashad Evans against Thiago Silva has the potential to be a tantalizing light heavyweight contest.
But will it deliver enough fireworks to make up for a pay-per-view fight card inferior on paper to free shows on Spike TV in the past?
Here is a breakdown of what to expect:
Rashad Evans (13-1-1) vs. Thiago Silva (14-1)
In a must-win fight for Evans, the former UFC light heavyweight champion needs to decisively dispatch Silva in order to ensure that a fight with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson comes to fruition.
This clash of 205-pound contenders is hardly the best main event for what was initially planned as a year-end blowout show, but it could prove to be an eventful start to the New Year.
Both Evans and Silva have one thing in common – a single loss on their record against the same man, Lyoto Machida.
Machida’s win over Silva was perhaps his most impressive to date as he put him down with just one second remaining in the opening round. Against Evans, Machida’s performance was equally masterful as he beat him to the punch and brutalized him with a knockout in round two.
Evans, the TUF season-two heavyweight winner, made his presence felt in the UFC with back-to-back victories over Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, only to lose all his momentum with a brutal knockout loss to now-champion Machida at UFC 98.
No longer a one-dimensional NCAA Division I wrestler mimicking the “lay and prey” style of Dan Severn, Evans has proven to be among the most dangerous power punchers in the division.
Under the wing of Greg Jackson in New Mexico, Evans has strengthened his boxing to be able to utilize his speed and footwork while capitalizing on openings against the most dangerous of strikers.
Against Silva, however, Evans may need to revert to his wrestling base to guarantee at least two won rounds.
Silva, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, has worked extensively with former Olympian and pro boxer Howard Davis Jr. at American Top Team. Silva’s muay thai base makes him a dangerous threat standing and his first-round knockout of Evans’ training partner Keith Jardine at UFC 102 left no doubt about his power.
Though Evans may be more explosive on his feet, Silva cannot be underestimated. The Brazilian has the ability to knock Evans out if this one becomes a slugfest.
Silva’s sublime submission skills have yet to be showcased in the UFC. That may just be the x-factor in this fight, but Silva should be weary of pulling guard on Evans.
Evans can unleash some nasty shots if Silva leaves himself open on the bottom, which ultimately led to Silva’s demise against Machida. They are both ground-and-pound specialists and neither man can afford to eat too many punches off their back.
An important factor in this fight is the level of competition each fighter has faced in the UFC. Evans has beaten some of the division’s best in impressive fashion, while Silva has been fed less seasoned opponents like Tomasz Drwal, Houston Alexander and Antonio Mendes. UFC 108 marks the opportunity of a lifetime for Silva, who can put himself on the map and in line for a rematch against the champion.
In what could turn out to be a tactical standup affair, Evans should be prepared to score some takedowns late in rounds to win this fight if it goes the distance. Much like he did against Tito Ortiz in the third round to ensure a draw, Evans needs to score points on the judges’ scorecards, all while avoiding Silva’s submission attempts.
With all factors taken into consideration, Evans should still be favoured. Evans has held the gold before and is hungry to rebound from the first setback of his career. If Evans keeps his focus on Silva and avoids looking too far ahead at a potential meeting with “Rampage,” he should use his counter-punching to devastate Silva in the second round with a highlight reel knockout.
Verdict: Evans via KO, Round 2
Junior Dos Santos (10-1) vs. Gilbert Yvel (36-13-1)
Under the tutelage of the Nogueira brothers, “Cigano” has become a top-10 heavyweight often forgotten when it comes to the title hunt.
Dos Santos, a BJJ brown belt and a dangerous boxer, shocked the MMA world when he brutally knocked out now-Strikeforce heavyweight contender Fabricio Werdum at UFC 90 in October 2008. Since then, he obliterated Stefan Struve and made feared PRIDE veteran Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic quit on his feet.
While Gabriel Gonzaga seemed like a perfect opponent to test Dos Santos at this stage of his career, “Cigano” can now look forward to taking on Yvel, another world-class striker from the days of PRIDE in Japan.
The Dutch powerhouse Yvel is coming off an explosive knockout of former UFC heavyweight contender Pedro Rizzo in June.
Known as “The Hurricane,” Yvel became one of MMA’s most controversial figures after getting disqualified for attacking a referee, eye gouging and biting his opponent.
Yvel has struggled in losses against well-rounded fighters like Josh Barnett, Dan Henderson and Vitor Belfort, submission specialists like Jeremy Horn and Ikuhisa Minowa and powerhouses like Kazuyuki Fujita and Igor Vovchanchyn. But some of his knockout victims, including Rizzo, Cheick Kongo, Gary Goodridge and Carlos Barreto, are probably wishing they were better prepared for Yvel’s lethal weapons.
Yvel has a chance to win if Dos Santos decides to stand and trade. However, one has to wonder if that’s even a mistake given Dos Santos’ win over “Cro Cop.”
Yvel’s main weakness is his ground game and Dos Santos has the tools to exploit that weakness. If Dos Santos gets himself into trouble standing, expect him to score a takedown and win by submission.
Verdict: Dos Santos via Submission, Round 1
Paul Daley (22-8-2) vs. Dustin Hazelett (12-4)
Daley has openly accused his original opponent Carlos Condit of ducking him, but his focus should be shifted to one of the welterweight division’s most underrated submission specialists.
Daley’s nickname, “Semtex,” a type of explosive, suits him all too well. His hands will be valuable assets against Hazelett if he can avoid relentless takedown attempts.
In the past, Daley’s grappling cost him fights against mixed martial artists with a solid ground game such as Jake Shields, Nick Thompson, Satoru Kitaoka, Pat Healy and Luiz Azeredo.
When he has let his hands go, Daley has stopped capable strikers like Martin Kampmann, John Alessio, Xavier Foupa-Pokam and Duane Ludwig.
Hazelett, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Jorge Gurgel, may just have the kryptonite to make it a short night for the free-swinging Brit.
Hazelett, who has not competed since November 2008, is itching to get back in the octagon, especially after his fight with Karo Parisyan at UFC 106 was scrapped.
Eight of Hazelett’s 12 wins have come by submission and he has also earned “Submission of the Night” honours on two separate occasions in the UFC.
If he weathers the early storm from Daley, Hazelett should get the fight down to the mat and patiently work for a picture-perfect submission hold.
Verdict: Hazelett via Submission, Round 1
Joe Lauzon (18-4) vs. Sam Stout (20-5-1)
It has been a long road back for Lauzon, who has been recuperating from knee surgery for close to a year.
Lauzon, a BJJ purple belt, is a talented grappler with only one loss in six UFC outings — versus recent title challenger Kenny Florian.
On the other hand, the Canadian Stout is a dynamic kickboxer who excels on his feet.
A longtime member of Team Tompkins under striking coach Shawn Tompkins, Stout has repeatedly put on show-stealing performances, earning “Fight of the Night” bonuses three times in seven UFC bouts.
While Lauzon comes into this fight with a better record on paper, as Stout has lost two of his last three bouts, this fight is tough to call.
The London, Ont. native is improving with every performance and could give the returning BJJ specialist all he could handle.
In the past, however, Stout has come out on the losing end when matched up with better grapplers such as Florian, Rich Clementi and Spencer Fisher.
Lauzon plans to stick to Stout like glue and work for submissions, though Stout is accustomed to surviving the 15-minute stretch.
Theoretically, “J-Lau” should win by outmanoeuvering and outpositioning his adversary en route to the decision nod. That being said, Stout will win if the majority of this fight takes place standing.
It will come down to which fighter better executes their gameplan and gets the battle into their comfort zone.
Verdict: Lauzon via Unanimous Decision
Duane Ludwig (19-9) vs. Jim Miller (15-2)
Both Tyson Griffin and Sean Sherk were more intriguing opponents for Miller, a well-rounded competitor with bases in wrestling and BJJ.
However, Ludwig has a knack for partaking in entertaining fights by living true to his nickname “Bang” and banging with the best of them.
Ludwig returns to the UFC after a 2-0 record in his first go-around with the organization.
Over the past three years, Ludwig has suffered several losses against some of the best lightweights in the world including Griffin, B.J. Penn, Josh Thomson, Takanori Gomi and a recent upset loss against Lyle Beerbohm under the Strikeforce banner.
The losses do not tell the whole story as Ludwig has amassed a number of big wins over his 10-year career, including victories over Charles Bennett, Thomas Denny, Jens Pulver, Genki Sudo and Yves Edwards.
Ludwig would love to recreate his 2006 11-second knockout of Jonathan Goulet, but he will quickly discover the UFC lightweight division is among the most competitive in the sport.
Miller is 4-1 in the UFC with his lone setback coming against top-10 contender Gray Maynard.
If Miller avoids trading with Ludwig and secures takedowns, he should ride out the decision win and move further up the UFC ladder.
Ludwig, meanwhile, may regret taking a fight against someone the caliber of Miller on such short notice.
Verdict: Miller via Unanimous Decision
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