Couture-Vera Predictions
The UFC returns to Manchester, England this Saturday with a card that will help us find out where some of Britain’s brightest prospects stand in the big time. Above and Beyond that, the main event showdown between Brandon “The Truth” Vera and legend Randy “The Natural” Couture will help forge the paths of both fighters in the shark tank that is the UFC light heavyweight division. Does Couture really have another title run left in him at 46 years of age? Will the enigmatic Vera finally recapture the vicious killer instinct that led to his rise at heavyweight, and use his considerable Muay Thai talents to make a case as contender to Lyoto Machida’s crown? The fact both fighters face a must-win scenario makes this bout reason enough to stay home and tune in to the free, albeit tape delayed telecast on Spike TV. Here is a breakdown of the main card:
Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera
After back-to-back losses to Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Couture has not tasted victory in more than two years now. No longer a title contender at heavyweight, Couture made the decision to try one more run at 205 lbs. His conditioning, game-planning and determination have not suffered at all over the years. However, in his last fight with “Minotauro” there were signs that the body of this aging warrior was beginning to slow, in particular the reflexes he needed to compete effectively with a technically sound boxer. Dropping down to a weight class with quicker and more athletic competitors such as Machida, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Rashad Evans seems like an endeavour destined for failure – exactly the kind of challenge Couture relishes.
His opponent is currently at a crossroad where victory makes him an automatic threat for the UFC belt. A loss, however, will invite even more criticism against the perplexing Vera and notions of a title shot will be far off in the distance. Vera is extremely talented not only on the feet but he has the wrestling credentials that if used effectively could help negate Couture’s clinch and ground-and-pound game. He possesses a lot of natural advantages due to his lanky frame and considerable reach. When he uses these advantages to land vicious punches and leg kicks, Vera can pose danger against anyone in the division. Simply put, it is his mental toughness on trial here and he will have to dial in to his warrior spirit to negate the significant resilience Couture will be bringing.
Couture will be relentlessly trying to close the distance and make the match a messy affair, full of dirty boxing, and very likely significant time in Vera’s guard where he can assert dominance and rain some punishing blows. Vera will need to use his superior quickness and footwork to keep Couture on the outside and pick him apart with well-timed leg kicks and power strikes. Once he finds his rhythm, Vera will be very difficult to stop and he has a good shot at overwhelming Couture with the power and diversity of his striking game.
The Verdict: Couture will be bringing the same intestinal fortitude he always does for a big match and will really force Vera to reveal whether he is worthy of being mentioned in talks about UFC gold. In essence, a new star will rise on the back of an older one, as the time for Vera to step up has arrived. Promising that this time he will not hesitate at all, you have to believe that Vera grasps the gravity of this test. Watch for Vera to appear sharper than ever before and show the kind of sadistic zeal needed to make full use of his striking advantage in this bout. For Couture, a Hall-of-Fame career could finally end this Saturday night if he cannot get Vera to the ground and keep it there for most of the fight. Look for Vera to land some eye opening shots early in the fight and set the tone, before catching the five-time UFC Champion with a fight ending flurry in the second round.
Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy
It may appear surprising to many that the winner of this bout will be facing Canadian pound-for-pound juggernaut Georges St-Pierre for the welterweight title sometime after the New Year. Given the fact that Under Armour’s new spokesperson has already taken out Jon Fitch, Thiago Alves and Josh Koschek, it is not as astonishing to see these two elevated to a title eliminator match. The question that begs to be answered is: which one of these pugilists is more equipped to mount a real threat to GSP’s dominance? Much of the pre-fight coverage has positioned Hardy and Swick as evenly matched standing up, with the latter considered the better grappler of the two. Given both the quantity and quality of opponents both fighters have faced to-date, this may not be an accurate assumption. While Swick routinely wrestles with standouts in Koschek and Fitch, he also possesses hand speed on the feet that ranks near the very top of the division, with the likes of Alves and Anthony Johnson. Hardy is a steadily improving and promising prospect, but the UFC seems to be pushing him towards title consideration faster than he is currently ready for. Expect Hardy to suffer a similar fate to the one his compatriot Bisping suffered at UFC 100. While Hardy may expect Swick to take him down, Swick’s razor sharp accuracy will put “The Outlaw” in dangerous waters with a predator that will not forgive a moment of weakness. After feeling each other out in Round 1, Swick will turn on the jet fuel and make Hardy and his trademark red mohawk kiss the canvas en-route to a future date with the champion.
Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang
TUF Season 3 winner Michael Bisping attempts to revive his standing in the middleweight division after suffering one of the most devastating knockout losses in MMA history at the hands of Dan Henderson in July. Kang has made it no secret that he believes Bisping needs to deal with the demons of that brutal setback, and that he plans on testing the chin of “The Count”. A well-rounded fighter who holds 12 wins by knockout and 15 wins by submission, Kang’s experience has yet to shine when needed most, and his resume is peppered with promising victories followed by deflating performances. He should hold a marked advantage on the ground in this tussle, and likely also has the heavier hands. Bisping’s route to victory will require him staying on the outside and landing more strikes to keep Kang at bay. This strategy will prove too difficult to replicate over 15 minutes and Kang’s craftiness on the mat will have a frustrated Bisping opening up more in the stand up exchanges by the third round. Kang will finally seize the limelight under the UFC banner, likely with a right hand that will seem painfully familiar to the hometown hero and his stunned supporters.
Matt Brown vs. James Wilks
TUF Season 9 welterweight winner James Wilks will try to give the crowd something to smile about as he takes on “The Immortal”. For someone with a record of 10 wins and 7 losses, Brown has proven that his constantly improving striking can ill-afford to be overlooked, as he put away Matt Serra disciple Pete Sell with shocking ease in his last outing. Wilks is more versatile and has shown enough skills on the ground that should make his strategy against the heavy handed Brown elementary. Brown has looked very uncomfortable on the mat, and with five of his losses coming by way of submission, Wilks just needs to stay out of his foe’s wheelhouse long enough to take him down. Once the fight hits the mat, it won’t be long until the hometown crowd goes wild in what should be submission victory for Wilks in the opening stanza.
Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley
The other winner from TUF Season 9 will try to make good on home soil as he takes on an opponent that has battled through more than three times the fisticuffs – in the cage at least. Riley’s wars of attrition have begun to show in his last few outings and he will need to keep up the pace with “The Real Deal” who proved that he can give as good as he gets during his war with Andre Winner in June. Riley, though has the savvy and experience to find the holes in Pearson’s game that Winner was too green to exploit. Expect an entertaining back-and-forth affair that should leave both fighters ineligible for any November magazine covers. A close decision will go the way of the veteran Riley, much to the chagrin of the Manchester faithful, who by then may provide some bonus fight footage with arena security.
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