UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin Breakdown
Following the first decisive setback of Fedor Emelianenko’s career, the title of No. 1 heavyweight in MMA is up for grabs this Saturday night as Shane Carwin challenges UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar at UFC 116 in Las Vegas.
After nearly a year away from the sport, the 32-year-old former professional wrestler faces arguably the toughest test of his career against an unbeaten powerhouse whose heavy hands have left behind a trail of first-round knockout victims.
Here’s the closer look at Saturday’s marquee fights:
-Brock Lesnar (4-1) vs. Shane Carwin (12-0)
A bout that was initially slated to headline UFC 106 last November was put on hold after Lesnar suffered a career threatening intestinal disorder called diverticulitis.
Lesnar’s last bout was in July 2009 against Frank Mir, which was the most impressive outing of his five-fight career. Lesnar avenged his only career loss against Mir in dominant fashion after capturing the belt from Randy Couture in 2008.
Originally schooled in MMA by Greg Nelson and Erik Paulson at CSW and Minnesota Marital Arts, Lesnar has now opened his own academy called Team DeathClutch where he trains alongside fellow NCAA wrestling standouts Chris Tuchscherer and Cole Konrad.
The 2000 NCAA heavyweight champion and two-time All-American relies on his fundamental strengths — a world-class wrestling pedigree and raw power. However, Lesnar is being drilled in all facets of the sport, training in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and striking under Rodrigo Medeiros and Paulson.
Additionally, Lesnar brought Couture into his training camp to help him prepare for Carwin. After all, Carwin could be the best fighter on the roster to test and neutralize Lesnar’s wrestling.
Carwin, 35, has stopped all 12 of his opponents in the first round. The 1999 NCAA II heavyweight national champion has waited over 10 years for a chance to test his wrestling skills against Lesnar.
Much like his opponent, Carwin has developed a well-rounded game and no longer relies solely on his outstanding wrestling base. In addition to reaching purple belt status in BJJ, Carwin has demonstrated brute force and powerful striking in knockout victories over Mir and Gabriel Gonzaga.
Based at Jackson’s Submission Fighting and Grudge Training Center, Carwin is a member of the most successful squad currently on the rise in MMA. His coaches Greg Jackson, Trevor Whitman and Jonathan Chaimberg have made a name for themselves through their molding of Georges St-Pierre, Rashad Evans and Nate Marquardt.
What makes this match-up particularly compelling is the fact that both men possess similar strengths.
While Lesnar is the more decorated wrestler, Carwin may be able to keep this fight standing. In Lesnar’s bout against Couture, he struggled to take him down in the opening stanza before connecting with a punch to the back of the head to win by knockout in round two. If Carwin studies Lesnar’s shots and braces himself for a gameplan that will rely heavily on takedowns, he could give Lesnar a hard time. Unlike Heath Herring, Carwin is unlikely to be suffocated by Lesnar’s overwhelming control.
Meanwhile, Carwin should have superior stand-up. In his four octagon appearances, Carwin has shown glimpses of greatness on his feet due primarily to the power he packs behind every punch.
However, Lesnar is a more physically imposing specimen. If he finds his rhythm and picks the right shots against Carwin, it’s hard to bet against him retaining his title.
Title contenders Junior dos Santos and Cain Velasquez are waiting in the wings for a crack at the winner. Surely, there are no easy fights in today’s competitive heavyweight division.
Verdict: Lesnar via TKO, Round 3
-Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1) vs. Chris Leben (20-6)
Fight fans everywhere were disappointed to hear about the withdrawal of former Pride king Wanderlei Silva. However, Leben is a fearless and dangerous replacement for Silva in what will surely be an entertaining middleweight tilt.
Akiyama, a black belt in judo and Shotokan karate, has not seen action since edging Alan Belcher by split decision in his UFC debut last July.
The former K-1 Hero’s champion made his mark in the “Land of the Rising Sun” where he defeated the likes of Melvin Manhoef and Denis Kang.
Unlike Akiyama’s hiatus spanning nearly a year, Leben last saw action two weeks ago, upsetting Arizona-based prospect Aaron Simpson by second-round TKO at “The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale.”
Leben, a free-swinging southpaw, holds career wins over Alessio Sakara, Jorge Santiago, Patrick Cote and Mike Swick.
After losing to Jake Rosholt by submission at UFC 102, many thought Leben’s UFC run could be coming to a halt. However, the Icon Fitness MMA product has since rebounded with successive victories. Another win against a top-ranked fighter like Akiyama could put him into title contention.
Leben’s gameplan is never a secret. He plans to swing leather wildly in hopes of knocking his opponents senseless.
Akiyama, a tactical striker with solid foot movement and angles, will likely outclass Leben if he fights recklessly. Moreover, he is among the most highly touted judokas in MMA. If Akiyama can bring Leben down to the mat, he will be a threat to win by submission. The likelier outcome is a 15-minute war favoring Akiyama on judges’ scorecards.
Verdict: Akiyama via Unanimous Decision
-Chris Lytle (28-17-5) vs. Matt Brown (11-8)
The entertaining slugger Lytle has won bonuses in seven of his last nine UFC contests.
A veteran of 50 pro fights since 1999, the 35-year-old Lytle has fallen under the radar in the welterweight picture.
In assessing his 17 career losses, Lytle has dropped bouts to the sport’s top gunners, including Josh Koscheck, Karo Parisyan, Thiago Alves, Matt Hughes, Matt Serra, Robbie Lawler and Nick Diaz. Competing against such high calibre competition has certainly been a valuable learning experience for Lytle, whose victims include Kazuo Misaki, Pat Healy and Pete Spratt.
Fans often forget about Lytle’s BJJ black belt because of his willingness to stand and trade with any opponent. However, Lytle reminded us of his slick submission skills with a first-round kneebar against Brian Foster at UFC 110. It is worth noting that Lytle attained moderate success competing as a professional boxer with a 13-1-1 record between 2002 and 2005.
This welterweight encounter marks the second time Lytle and Brown will cross paths as Lytle won their first meeting via second-round guillotine choke in August 2007.
Brown, 29, is no slouch on the ground. A BJJ blue belt and judo brown belt, Brown’s trainers include Matt Hume and Jorge Gurgel.
After compiling three impressive stoppage victories in the UFC, Brown was submitted by Ricardo Almeida this past March. Despite coming out on the losing end, Brown continues to showcase an evolving game since fighting Lytle three years ago.
Age may finally be catching up to Lytle, who has taken substantial abuse over the course of his career. Brown, meanwhile, has shown improvement every time he steps into the octagon. Although a stoppage is unlikely, Brown should fare well enough in this rematch to prevail by decision.
Verdict: Brown via Unanimous Decision
-Stephan Bonnar (11-7) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (19-9-1)
After their first bout was plagued by a controversial stoppage due to an accidental headbutt, Bonnar gets a chance to settle the score against an emerging Canadian light heavyweight prospect.
Anchored at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas and Team Sityodtong in Boston, Bonnar is a BJJ purple belt with questionable wrestling and striking that often borders on sloppy.
Riding a three-fight losing streak, Bonnar cannot afford to underperform against Soszynski on Saturday night. UFC president Dana White has stated Bonnar will always have a home in the UFC because of his epic battle with Forrest Griffin in 2005. Considering Keith Jardine’s recent release, nobody is safe. After all, Jardine had beaten Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell yet he was still handed his walking papers after a forth straight setback.
Bonnar’s most impressive career win was a unanimous decision against Jardine in April 2006. Losses against Jon Jones, Griffin, Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida are hardly enough to discount “The American Psycho.” However, an abysmal outing against an aging Mark Coleman at UFC 100 has lead to many observers questioning whether Bonnar really belongs in the UFC.
Soszynski emerged as a solid addition to the UFC light heavyweight division after a stint on the eighth season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” The Polish-born Canadian is finally reaching his full potential at the age of 32.
A product of Team Quest under Dan Henderson, Soszynski has beaten the likes of Andre Gusmao, Brian Stann and Dan Christison. The TKO and IFL veteran held his own in a decision loss to Brandon Vera and he continues to threaten foes with dangerous submissions, having trained under top Canadian BJJ black belt Rodrigo Munduruca.
“The Polish Experiment” should outwrestle Bonnar at UFC 116. If he fails to deliver a quality performance, the future remains uncertain for a man partly responsible for triggering the UFC’s rapid growth and modern era of success.
Verdict: Soszynski via Unanimous Decision
-Kurt Pellegrino (16-4) vs. George Sotiropoulos (12-2)
This thrilling lightweight clash will certainly be a candidate for “Fight of the Night.”
Pellegrino, 31, is a submission specialist trained in BJJ under Ricardo Almeida. In his last bout, Pellegrino picked up the most impressive submission win of his career against Fabricio Camoes, a 2nd degree black belt under Royler Gracie.
Nicknamed “Batman,” Pellegrino is on a four-fight winning streak. However, he has been susceptible to superior submission players in the past, tapping out against Nate Diaz, Drew Fickett and Satoru Kitaoka.
He risks the same fate against the Australian BJJ black belt Sotiropoulos, who has evolved his game rolling with the likes of John Will, Enson Inoue, Eddie Bravo and Matt Serra. Formerly an amateur boxer as well, Sotiropoulos put the lightweight division on notice with a unanimous decision triumph over Joe Stevenson at UFC 110. Meanwhile, Pellegrino lost to Stevenson when they collided in 2007.
Unbeaten in five octagon appearances, the 32-year-old Sotiropoulos could enter the lightweight top 10 with a decisive victory on Saturday night. In a match-up that will likely transform into a grappling affair, Sotiropoulos should have an edge. But the Australian sensation should brace himself for a long night against a game fighter like Pellegrino.
Verdict: Sotiropoulos via Unanimous Decision
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