UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen Breakdown
After months of build-up in which challenger Chael Sonnen has ridiculed, mocked, insulted and degraded UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva, he will finally get an opportunity to back up his harsh words when they face off at UFC 117.
The self-assured Sonnen has promised to bring the fight to Silva when they meet for the title this Saturday night at the Oracle Arena in Oakland, Calif.
Here’s a closer look at the marquee fights for the UFC’s strongest card of the year:
-Anderson Silva (26-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (24-10-1)
Sonnen’s ability to sell himself leading up to this middleweight title fight has been nothing short of outstanding. A fight that would otherwise be lopsided on most betting lines has become much closer based solely on Sonnen’s self-marketing and excessive smack talk.
That being said, the challenger Sonnen presents several notable obstacles for Silva. A former NCAA Division I All-American at the University of Oregon, Sonnen is one of the middleweight division’s most decorated amateur wrestlers. The two-time University National champion in Greco-Roman wrestling and former U.S. Olympic team alternate has a suffocating style, coupling takedowns with a violent ground-and-pound assault.
After defeating current Strikeforce middleweight contender Jason Miller in his 2002 pro debut, Sonnen amassed several notable wins, including decisions over Jason Lambert, Alex Stiebling, Trevor Prangley and Paulo Filho. More recently, Sonnen has dispatched Dan Miller, Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt, all seasoned grapplers who were being groomed for possible title shots before they lost to Sonnen.
Anchored at Team Quest in Oregon where he trains alongside former Olympic silver medalist Matt Lindland, the 33-year-old Republican State Representative has made no secret about his gameplan when the cage door closes.
“If Chael Sonnen can’t get a takedown, then Chael Sonnen is getting his ass kicked,” he said at a fan Q&A session.
Despite possessing some of the best wrestling in the sport, Sonnen has suffered from being a one-dimensional fighter. In particular, Sonnen is susceptible to superior grapplers and submission players, having been submitted by Demian Maia, Jeremy Horn, Renato Sobral and Forrest Griffin. In his last appearance against Marquardt, Sonnen admits he nearly submitted to a second-round guillotine choke attempt.
While 14 of his 24 victories have gone the distance, Sonnen insists he wants to get as much airtime as possible, which means he will be content to ride out a decision on Saturday night. However, the BJJ and Judo black belt Silva has all the tools to punish Sonnen where he is most vulnerable.
The 35-year-old Brazilian has had one of the most impressive title reigns in UFC history. Among the highlights of his UFC campaign, Silva crushed Rich Franklin on two separate occasions, in addition to submitting former Olympian and NCAA Division I wrestler Dan Henderson.
But “The Spider” has been met with stern criticism over his lackluster decisions against Thales Leites and Maia, in which he lacked the same killer instinct that fans had grown accustomed to in his previous outings.
Following his abysmal effort against Maia, UFC president Dana White confronted the middleweight champion and has since vowed to release him from the company if he continues to underperform.
According to Silva, there is nothing to apologize about. He played it safe against dangerous BJJ black belts, which was the smart gameplan. Some pundits have suggested that Silva’s half-hearted efforts are the result of boredom with the quality of his opposition.
A few uneventful performances aside, Silva is one of the most lethal strikers in the game. His pinpoint accuracy, footwork, counter-punching and destructive knees have left many opponents laying motionless.
Given Sonnen’s relentless verbal attack, Silva will be particularly motivated to finish the fight in spectacular fashion. Sonnen may have crossed the line when he insulted the Nogueira brothers, Silva’s longtime teammates.
Silva has trained with former NCAA wrestler Mark Munoz to prepare for the most dangerous tool in Sonnen’s arsenal — the double-leg takedown. However, Munoz was unable to successfully take Okami down with they clashed last Sunday on Versus. Conversely, Sonnen brutalized Okami with takedowns when they fought last October, which could spell bad news for the champion.
In the past, Silva has struggled to fend off takedowns against Henderson and Travis Lutter. While his wrestling game has likely improved leaps and bounds since those bouts, he can still end up on his back against the southpaw Sonnen, whose key to victory is to pummel Silva from top position for 25 minutes.
Armed with long legs perfectly suited for body triangles and sweeps, the BJJ ace should be able to catch Sonnen in a submission before tasting too much leather off his back.
Sonnen’s rudimentary stand-up game could be exploited early on and he will likely be desperate to take Silva down. However, if Sonnen is unable to get him on his back, the champion may dance circles around the durable American for five rounds, which is certain to lead to outrage among MMA fans and particularly the UFC president.
Verdict: Silva via Submission, Round 2
-Jon Fitch (22-3) vs. Thiago Alves (16-6)
In a battle of top-three welterweights, Fitch, 32, and Alves, 26, have an opportunity to make their case for a rematch against divisional ruler Georges St-Pierre.
The pair first met in June 2006 with Fitch stopping Alves in the second round. Since losing to Fitch over four years ago, Alves went on a seven-fight winning tear before dropping a decision to St-Pierre last July. Among his victims, Alves stopped Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck.
Meanwhile, Fitch is 12-1 in the octagon with his lone setback coming at the hands of St-Pierre in August 2008. Unlike Alves, Fitch has not been stopping opponents but rather grinding out hard-fought decision wins.
While Alves has proven himself against the likes of Hughes and Koscheck, Fitch has faced less-seasoned opponents with his most notable victory since 2007 being a decision over Paulo Thiago at UFC 100.
However, a win is a win. Fitch is a sound striker with exceptional wrestling and grappling skills. The former NCAA Division I wrestler and Guerilla Jiu Jitsu black belt under Dave Camarillo has shown minimal weaknesses during his time in the UFC.
On the other hand, Alves is a more powerful fighter with youth on his side. The muay thai wrecking machine will have a decisive edge in the standup exchanges, possessing superior technique, size and knockout power.
Although Fitch has proven himself as one of the sturdiest fighters in the organization, Alves has made more progress since they last crossed paths. If he can use his power to neutralize Fitch’s wrestling while scoring on his feet, Alves can even the score by notching a decision victory.
Verdict: Alves via Unanimous Decision
-Clay Guida (26-11) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (14-4)
This lightweight tilt presents an intriguing stylistic clash as rugged wrestling meets high-level BJJ.
The 28-year-old Guida is coming off a submission win over Shannon Gugerty in March. Recently taken under the wing of Greg Jackson, the often wild Guida is continuing his evolution towards becoming a well-rounded mixed martial artist.
Although Guida is only 5-5 in his last 10 appearances, he has earned the admiration of MMA fans around the world for his frantic pace and aggressive style. His notable wins include decisions over seasoned grapplers Nate Diaz, Mac Danzig, Marcus Aurelio and Josh Thomson.
The 25-year-old Dos Anjos is riding a three-fight winning streak. After a shaky start to his UFC bid, including back-to-back losses against Jeremy Stephens and Tyson Griffin, Dos Anjos recorded decisions over Rob Emerson and Kyle Bradley. Dos Anjos’ most impressive effort came against sharp striker Terry Etim this past April as the Brazilian won by second-round submission.
In addition to his BJJ black belt under Aldo Januario de Oliveira, Dos Anjos has trained in the art of muay thai under the Sityodtong Team at Evolve MMA.
With both Guida and Dos Anjos recently earning “Submission of the Night” bonuses, they could be destined to deliver the fight of the night on Saturday night.
While both lightweights are evenly matched, Dos Anjos has achieved his greatest success when he employs his submission base. Guida is not a real threat standing and is often willing to take his opponents down, which could play right into the game of Dos Anjos. Guida will look to smother the Brazilian grappler, but he will be playing with fire if he gets sloppy on the mat against the slick submission specialist.
Verdict: Dos Anjos via Submission, Round 3
-Matt Hughes (44-7) vs. Ricardo Almeida (12-3)
Redemption is the story in this 170-pound meeting as Almeida looks to avenge a 2000 ADCC grappling loss to Hughes, who is arguably the most successful welterweight in the history of MMA.
Recently inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame, the 36-year-old Hughes could be nearing the last few years of a historic career dating back to 1998.
Hughes’ skills are well-documented. A two-time Division I NCAA All-American wrestler and unheralded submission player, Hughes has dominated the welterweight division for the majority of his career. The two-time titleholder holds a record-high 17 wins in the UFC.
Almeida, a third-degree BJJ black belt under Renzo Gracie, is a former King of Pancrase. After amassing wins over the likes of Kazuo Misaki, Nate Marquardt and Ryo Chonan in Japan, Almeida took a four-year hiatus from the sport.
Since returning in 2008, Almeida is 4-1, including a dominant second-round submission win over Matt Brown in his last appearance.
In Hughes’ last fight, he dominated Almeida’s trainer Renzo Gracie before stopping him with strikes in the third round. Additionally, Hughes had previously vanquished MMA pioneer Royce Gracie in 2006.
Revenge will be sweet for Almeida if he finally scores a victory against Hughes, both for himself and for his coach. At welterweight, the 33-year-old Almeida possesses a size advantage over most adversaries and Hughes will be no exception.
The American legend will try to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing, while Almeida will likely use every trick in his toolbox to turn this bout into a grappling contest, whether it means pulling guard or shooting in for a takedown.
Although Hughes is the more experienced and more versatile fighter, he has slowed considerably since his prime between 2003 and 2006. Almeida, meanwhile, has been hungrier and increasingly aggressive since his UFC return. The American-born Brazilian fighter will look to successfully implement his gameplan to outwork Hughes over three rounds, although it is an evenly matched bout that could go either way.
Verdict: Almeida via Split Decision
-Junior dos Santos (11-1) vs. Roy Nelson (15-4)
To cap off the stellar main card line-up, Dos Santos meets Nelson in an attractive heavyweight eliminator.
Dos Santos shook the foundation of the UFC heavyweight picture when he knocked out Fedor Emelianenko conqueror Fabricio Werdum in his October 2008 UFC debut. Since then, Dos Santos has brutalized an assortment of top-ranked opponents, including Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, Gilbert Yvel and Gabriel Gonzaga.
A BJJ brown belt under Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, the Team Black House pupil has trained with middleweight king Anderson Silva leading up to UFC 117, which will benefit both fighters as they will peak at the same time in training.
However, fans have yet to get a glimpse of Dos Santos’ ground game because of his unforgiving striking. Under Luiz Dorea, Dos Santos has become one of the sharpest boxers in the heavyweight division, which he proved by forcing “Cro Cop” to quit on his feet in a stand-up battle.
At only 25 years of age, Dos Santos is poised for a successful MMA career, which could include a future UFC heavyweight title reign.
Nine years Dos Santos’ elder, the 34-year-old Nelson has overcome all odds to find himself in a title eliminator bout.
The former IFL heavyweight champion made Dana White swallow his negative criticism on the tenth season of “The Ultimate Fighter” by dispatching Kimbo Slice, Justin Wren, James McSweeney and Brendan Schaub on his way to winning a UFC contract. “Big Country” has since knocked out Dutch prospect Stefan Struve in less than a minute, earning his spot as a title contender.
Physically, Nelson is not the most impressive specimen. He boasts about eating Big Macs and walks around with an enormous belly unlike any other fighter in the UFC. However, Nelson happens to be one of the most technical submission players in the division, holding a BJJ black belt under Renzo Gracie.
While Nelson is expected to be the superior grappler, Dos Santos has yet to flaunt his technique for the rest of the world to see. The reason is because no one in the UFC has survived Dos Santos’ death-dealing fists, which isn’t a promising sign for Nelson. If Dos Santos lands a big shot, the heavyset American will go to sleep.
Verdict: Dos Santos via KO, Round 1
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