Breakdown – Affliction ‘Banned’
Considering the amount of talent on the card for Affliction’s inaugural show Saturday night in Anaheim, California, to say that the show will likely be good is an understatement. The debut event of the clothing manufacturer whose product being banned by the UFC acted as the catalyst that began their foray into mixed martial arts has the potential to be the MMA event of the year. Pundits and fans of the sport could not be happier. Saturday night they will be able to watch a fight card stacked from top to bottom with top-tier fighters and they will finally have an American promotion to truly compete with the caliber of fights put on by the UFC.
To many, the Affliction event is considered the most heavily anticipated MMA organization’s debut ever – an opinion noted by the UFC which hastily put together their own free Spike TV card to run interference on their new competitor’s premiere show. Despite claims otherwise, the UFC has never produced a “Fight Night” event on a Saturday night before.
Competition or not, the new promotion has big ambitions for the future and has at least one more show planned for 2008.
In the main event of the night, the World Alliance of Mixed Martial Arts heavyweight title will be contested for the first time. What is unique about the belt is that it will transcend beyond Affliction and allow the owner to defend the championship in any WAMMA affiliated organization, moving closer towards true undisputed world championship status than promotional titles have done in the past.
Fedor Emelianenko who is widely considered the number one heavyweight in the world and Tim Sylvia ranked by most at number four behind Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera will lock horns for the inaugural title, setting the stage for a probable showdown with Couture and the winner later this year. Pitting two fighters together with contrasting styles such as a sambo specialist like Emelianenko and a pure striker like Silvia ensures that the fight will be technical, yet entertaining and likely won’t go to a decision.
Other bouts of the night will likely establish a pecking order for other title fights in the light heavyweight and middleweight divisions. A sign of the decent matchmaking of Affliction vice president of operations Tom Atencio is the fact that most of the fights can go either way due to how evenly matched both opponents are in skill and experience. Every fight on Saturday night’s card has the potential for being a marquee fight. Let’s hope the event lives up to the hype the card’s potential has garnered.
PAY-PER-VIEW TELEVISED MAIN CARD
WAMMA World Heavyweight Championship Bout
Fedor Emelianenko (27-1) vs. Tim Sylvia (26-5)
Sylvia fell victim to well instituted game plans in his most important two fights of the past year and will likely look to impose his own strategy on his dangerous Russian opponent rather than make the same mistake again. Losing his UFC heavyweight title to Couture by decision in March 2007 and then getting submitted last February by Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in his next shot at the title vacated when Couture left the organization, Sylvia let the belt and his future in the UFC slip through his fingers.
His consolation prize is a shot at Emelianenko, which may end up being more of a punishment than a reward. The best bet for the 6’ 8” “Maine-iac” would be to try to keep the fight standing, allowing him to utilize his distinct reach advantage while helping him avoid his opponent’s dangerous sambo submissions. Sylvia hits hard and Emelianenko has been rocked in the past by Kazuyuki Fujita so this fight could end in the American’s favor if he is consistent and is smart.
Emelianenko is no stranger to fighting an opponent of Sylvia’s size or power. In his last fight, he defeated 7’ 2” South Korean behemoth Hong Man Choi by armbar and has withstood punishment from K-1 caliber strikers like Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, Mark Hunt and Semmy Schilt, defeating all three men. One thing the former PRIDE heavyweight champion has that Sylvia does not is a win over Nogueira, having defeated him by decision in 2004.
The mystique that surrounds Fedor emanates from his record. The statistics are staggering. Only seven of his fights have gone the distance (he won each decision). Thirteen of his 27 wins have come by submission. He is undefeated in his past 26 fights and his only loss came eight years ago and was the result of a cut.
The question will be whether or not Sylvia can put his opponent’s history aside and concentrate on putting on a performance like those demonstrated in his wins over Andrei Arlovski, Wesley Correira and Ricco Rodriguez.
PREDICTION: Sylvia by TKO
Josh Barnett (25-5) vs. Pedro Rizzo (16-7)
Barnett and Rizzo will square off in rematch of their last bout in 2001 at UFC 30 that ended with Rizzo winning with a second round knockout. Since that time, Barnett has gone 15-3, losing to Filipovic (twice) and Nogueira. In the same time span, Rizzo logged nearly half as many fights as Barnett winning five and losing six.
Now 34, Rizzo is older and still has knockout power but unlike Barnett who is three years his junior, he hasn’t compensated for his age by becoming a smarter fighter. He still leaves his chin out, susceptible to being knocked out however the chance that Barnett will capitalize on flaw is doubtful, as he has never knocked an opponent out before. Barnett’s submissions should be the deciding factor in this one.
PREDICTION: Barnett by submission (Heel hook or ankle lock)
Matt Lindland (20-5) vs. Fabio Negao (8-3)
This is possibly the only match in which it will be easy to pick the winner. Lindland is one of those fighters who just finds a way to win. Though he was unsuccessful in his last outing, he was facing a juggernaut in Emelianenko and he did so two weight classes above his usual 185 lbs. A gamer, Lindland just loves to compete and will fight anyone at any time. His experience, takedowns and submission defense should allow him to ground and pound a stoppage out of his less experienced opponent.
PREDICTION: Lindland by TKO
Ben Rothwell (33-5) vs. Andrei Arlovski (12-5)
On paper, this fight should be a slugfest but don’t count on Arlovski to comply with convention as he fell short in attempting to stand and trade with Sylvia the last two times they met. Rothwell has only been knocked out once in five career losses, dropping one fight via TKO, whereas four of Arlovski’s losses have come by TKO or KO.
At first glance, one might assume that Rothwell’s experience might give him an edge over his Belarus-born opponent, but “The Pitbull” has faced stronger opponents. To eliminate the size advantage of his 265 lb opponent, expect Arlovski to duck under Rothwell’s punches to attempt submissions on the ground.
PREDICTION: Arlovski by submission (Ankle lock or arm triangle)
Renato “Babalu” Sobral (29-7) vs. Mike Whitehead (23-6)
Having only fought once since being released by the UFC, Sobral should be hungry to finish Whitehead quickly and decisively. His crafty transitions will likely be too much for Whitehead, who would be ill advised to try to take the fight to the ground. His best bet would be to try to catch “Babalu” with a well-timed knee as the Brazilian shoots.
PREDICTION: Sobral by submission (Anaconda or rear-naked choke)
Mike Pyle (16-5-1) vs. J.J. Ambrose
A classic match up between grapplers, this fight will likely be more chess match than brawl. Pyle’s experience and time spent training with elite training partners at Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas give him an edge that will be difficult for Ambrose to match standing or on the ground.
PREDICTION: Pyle by TKO
THE FIGHT NETWORK AND FOX SPORTSNET TELEVISED PRELIMINARY CARD
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (13-3) vs. Edwin Dewees (35-12)
Although he only has 16 fights under his belt, the twin brother of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is an Olympic caliber boxer who has only been knocked out once by Thierry Rameau Sokoudjou. A Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, “Lil’ Nog” has never been submitted, dropping his only other losses by decision to Vladimir Matyushenko and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Dewees.
Much like his good friend Joe Riggs, Dewees has a ton of experience but seems to crack under the pressure of a big fight. There isn’t anywhere Dewees can take this fight that he has an advantage and knowing that coupled with facing a Nogueira might put him at a disadvantage psychologically as well.
PREDICTION: Nogueira by TKO
Vitor Belfort (16-8) vs. Terry Martin (17-5)
If the reports from Belfort’s new trainer Shawn Tompkins and the pictures of the Brazilian being circulated on MMA news sites on the web are any indication of how prepared he is for his first fight in the past year, Terry Martin might be in trouble. Making his debut at middleweight, Belfort who was once a dominative force in the UFC where he held the light heavyweight title at a time was considered the best fighter in the world.
Beleaguered by personal problems including the kidnapping and subsequent murder of his sister in Brazil, Belfort’s future in the sport seemed as dismal as his life had become. Many wondered if he would ever return to the form that garnered him the name “The Phenom”.
The wait might be over unless Martin can catch Belfort with one of his heavy hands. Belfort, who has proven he has a solid chin, has never been knocked out however he did drop two fights to Couture by TKO. At 5’ 8”, Martin may have a hard time finding his 6’ opponent’s chin.
PREDICTION: Belfort by TKO
Mark Hominick (15-8) vs. Savant Young (9-7)
At 5’6”, Young is a huge featherweight in terms of girth and strength. With the exception of his recent decision victory over “Lion” Takeshi Inoue in Shooto, Young has not beaten a fighter as skilled as Hominick. The fight will likely remain on the feet, however Hominick should be prepared if Young decides to take him down. Having spent the past few months shoring up his weaknesses on the ground with some of Canada’s best wrestlers at Xtreme Couture in Toronto, Ontario, Hominick should be able to scramble back to his feet where he is most comfortable. “
The Machine” has only ever been knocked out once by a slam in 23 MMA fights and dozens of kickboxing matches so the likelihood of Young doing so is low.
PREDICTION: Hominick by decision
Gary Goodridge (23-17-1) vs. Paul Buentello
Stepping in for Aleksander Emelianenko on short notice due to the Russian’s inability to make medical requirements for the bout, Gary Goodridge will likely be hard-pressed to be able to last three rounds with Buentello. The headhunter should make quick work of his 42-year-old fighter who been considering retirement the past few months.
PREDICTION: Buentello by KO
Justin Levens (9-8) vs. Ray Lazama (0-0)
Although he has a sub .500 record, Levens 17 fights including UFC and IFL experience should leave him more prepared than his newcomer opponent.
PREDICTION: Levens by TKO
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