Breakdown – UFC Fight Night 14
While it may have been hastily arranged with the intent of stripping luster from the debut of Affliction the same night on pay-per-view, this Saturday’s free TV offering from the Ultimate Fighting Championship is full of intriguing storylines. The debut of UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva at light heavyweight versus James Irvin could be the fight that puts Silva over-the-top as one of the sport’s top stars and a drawing card. Silva has not fought in front of a cable TV audience since his Octagon debut in 2006, when he dismantled Chris Leben in 49 seconds. Silva’s wins since then have earned him serious consideration for the label of best pound-for-pound fighter, however many of those virtuoso performances were on pay-per-view, and thus seen by an audience much smaller than the one likely to tune in for Saturday’s heavily-advertised event. Irvin, coming off a record knockout of the enigmatic Houston Alexander in April on Spike TV, would open an entirely new chapter in his career if he defeats Silva.
The UFC’s middleweight kingpin won’t be the only fighter trying a new weight class on for size Saturday. Heavyweight star Brandon Vera, who is on the smaller side of the heavyweight scale, is dropping to 205 to meet Reese Andy, one of three International Fight League veterans debuting on the show. Vera was pitched several star opponents for this card, including Wanderlei Silva and Dan Henderson, which shows that UFC matchmakers want to see the charismatic Vera break through. The future of the division that Vera is temporarily vacating will be decided when Cain Velasquez, an NCAA wrestling powerhouse and one of the most promising new fighters in the sport, faces Jake O’Brien in what could be a grappling clinic. Hermes Franca takes on Frankie Edgar in a battle to see who will stay afloat in the stacked lightweight ranks. Franca is entering the cage for the first time since a loss to Sean Sherk last July and his subsequent drug test failure suspension.
One of the more intriguing fights to casual fans is likely the pairing of C.B. Dollaway and Jesse Taylor in a battle of “Ultimate Fighter 7” personalities. Taylor earned quite a reputation on the reality show, urinating on himself and drunkenly kicking out limousine windows in a pattern of behavior that led UFC President Dana White to kick him off. Taylor has since attended alcohol counseling, and White was quick to green light his return. Dollaway got Taylor’s spot in the finals, where he was submitted for a second time by Amir Sadollah, and is anxious to redeem an embarrassing performance.
TELEVISED CARD
Anderson Silva (21-4, 6-0 UFC) vs. James Irvin (14-4-1, 4-3 UFC)
Silva has looked simply unstoppable since 2006, defeating all manner of fighters in all manner of ways. How he will stack up in terms of size at a higher weight class is a question mark, especially considering Irvin has fought his entire UFC career at 205. Silva has not talked of wanting to stay at light heavyweight, though a mega-match with Chuck Liddell would probably happen if the cards fell into place. Irvin has never been knocked out, but neither had Chris Leben before Silva lit him up like a pinball machine. Irvin, a Muay Thai style fighter, has talked about Silva’s clinch appearing so deadly mostly because he’s used it against wrestlers who clinch in a different fashion, not against a fellow Thai boxer. Even if Irvin can counter Silva in the clinch, it looks like it’s going to take a miracle of timing for him to keep pace with Silva’s diverse attack. Stranger things have happened, but this doesn’t look to be the fight where a still-hungry Silva falters.
PREDICTION: Silva
Brandon Vera (8-2, 4-2 UFC) v. Reese Andy (7-1, 0-0 UFC)
After his star-making win over Frank Mir in 2006, Vera boldly proclaimed he would take both the UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight titles. After a string of bad luck at heavyweight, Vera has the chance to make some inroads in the other class against Andy, a 35-year-old IFL veteran and NCAA All-American whose most notable wins have been over Jamal Patterson, Kala Kolohe Hose and Justin Levens. Andy, who has also fought heavyweight, is the most skilled wrestler Vera has faced, though Vera has fought a slightly higher caliber of opponent in his career. It’s much more of an even match than the fighters’ respective star power might indicate, and Andy could very well take this one. Vera, who is slumping, has to avoid the takedown and catch the wrestler on the way in.
PREDICTION: Vera
Hermes Franca (19-5, 5-3 UFC) v. Frankie Edgar (8-1, 3-1 UFC)
Another very even match-up. Edgar is a strong wrestler with great stamina but questionable finishing ability, while Franca’s stock-and-trade for most of his career has been catching sudden submissions from all angles. Edgar’s only blemish was against wrestler Gray Maynard, who appeared to out-power the New Jersey fighter. If Franca could survive Sean Sherk’s onslaught for five rounds, he can probably take Edgar the distance, too. But Franca could have an equally tough time executing winning techniques against an aggressive grappler. If the horrid kneebar Tyson Griffin has Edgar in last year was any indication, Edgar will not tap. Ring rust also has to be a factor. Due to a one-year suspension for a steroid test failure, Franca hasn’t fought since July, while Edgar has fought two hard fights in that space. Franca has one of the best submission games at 155, but Edgar looks to have the tools to win, likely by decision.
PREDICTION: Edgar
Cain Velasquez (3-0, 1-0 UFC) v. Jake O’Brien (10-2, 3-1 UFC)
Two exceptionally effective wrestlers butt heads here, as Velasquez, a top-level NCAA wrestler at Arizona State, rides a wave of hype about his prospects in the sport. His trainer, the respected American Kickboxing Academy striking coach Javier Mendez, recently told Yahoo! Sports that Velasquez’s striking has reached K-1 level and that he could enter the pro boxing ranks. That coupled with Velasquez’s tournament wrestling and jiu-jitsu accomplishments could prove a potentially lethal potion for O’Brien, who has relied heavily in his recent fights on takedowns and control. O’Brien struggled to get Andrei Arlovski down before being TKO’ed, and Velasquez looks equally-poised hold up the same roadblock.
PREDICTION: Velasquez
Anthony Johnson (4-1, 2-1 UFC) v. Kevin Burns (7-1, 1-0 UFC)
This is an intriguing fight between two relative newcomers who have recently won eye-opening stoppages. Burns is coming off a shocking triangle choke submission over jiu-jitsu ace Roan Carneiro at UFC 85, and Johnson needed only 50 seconds to knock out burly wrestler Tommy Speer in April. Johnson’s one career loss came by submission to Rich Clementi, and Burns has notched almost all his career wins in that fashion. If Burns can get past Johnson’s explosive hands and into a position to hook a sub, he should be able to find a way to win the fight.
PREDICTION: Burns
C.B. Dollaway (7-1, 0-1 UFC) v. Jesse Taylor (6-2, 0-0 UFC)
It’s hard to imagine that this fight between two talented wrestlers ending any other way than after three rounds of grappling with some strikes sprinkled in. The fight should get the crowd buzzing, as both reality show stars battle to secure futures in the UFC despite blowing their respective opportunities in the tournament. Dollaway is fighting out of the Arizona Combat Club, while Taylor trains with Dan Henderson at Team Quest in California. While both have showed similar finishing abilities throughout their career, Dollaway appears the more versatile fighter.
PREDICTION: Dollaway
PRELIMIARY CARD
Tim Credeur (10-4, 0-0 UFC) v. Cale Yarbrough (0-0)
This fight was originally scheduled for The Ultimate Finale event on June 21st, but Credeur failed a test for Adderall and wasn’t allowed to fight but not suspended. Credeur, a Carlson Gracie pupil, has won most of his fights via submission, but ran into some trouble against solid wrestlers on The Ultimate Fighter. Yarbrough, a Hardcore Gym fighter out of Georgia, won all of his amateur fights by TKO, but, like Credeur, lost to Dollaway on TUF. Yarbrough doesn’t present exactly the same strengths that have stunted Credeur in the past, and Credeur seems to have what it takes in submission skill and experience to win.
PREDICTION: Credeur
Brodie Farber (13-3, 0-0 UFC) v. Rory Markham (15-4, 0-0 UFC)
Markham is a former IFL fighter and Pat Miletich student known for throwing down until someone falls down. The approach has served him well for the most part, though the welterweight mixed it up in June using a triangle to submit Jay Ellis on the first Adrenaline MMA event. Farber’s strength is submissions, having notched seven of his 13 wins in that fashion. Pretty even match, though Markham has never been submitted. A chink in Markham’s armor has shown when he’s fought guys as apt to stand and trade as he is, and Farber’s history doesn’t indicate he will take that approach.
PREDICTION: Markham
Nate Loughran (8-0, 0-0 UFC) v. Johnny Rees (10-0, 0-0 UFC)
Both UFC newcomers have shown a clear aptitude for submissions, so expect a ground battle. It’s very tough to say who has the edge in this battle of undefeated fighters considering their similar strengths. Loughran last fought in May, while Rees all the way back in November, so the argument could be made that Loughran will come in sharper.
PREDCITION: Loughran
James Giboo (11-2, 0-0 UFC) v. Brad Blackburn (12-9-1, 0-0 UFC)
Blackburn proved he was no joke in the IFL, showing impressive punching power in knocking out veteran Jay Hieron and Delson Heleno, two of the IFL’s top welterweights. Blackburn, who trains with Dennis Hallman at American Top Team West, was on the verge of an IFL title shot before UFC signed him away. Giboo is more adept at submissions, a position Blackburn has only been caught in once in his career, and that was three years ago.
PREDICTION: Blackburn
Dale Hartt (5-0, 0-0 UFC) v. Shannon Gugerty (10-2, 0-0 UFC)
Hartt, fighting out of Maine, is a training partner of UFC welterweight Marcus Davis, and nearly made the cut for the next season of The Ultimate Fighter. Hartt is riding a five-fight win streak, while Gugerty, whose made his name on the opposite coast of the United States, is riding a seven-fight win streak and brings a win record weighted toward submissions. Hartt may have never been defeated, but this toss-up could go to Gugerty for his experience edge and more wins over tough fighters, such as Cub Swanson.
PREDICTION: Gugerty
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