The Breakdown – UFC 86 ‘Jackson vs. Griffin’
UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin
Saturday, July 6
Mandalay Bay Events Center
Las Vegas
Two of the UFC’s prized marketing commodities will collide inside the Octagon on Saturday, when light heavyweight champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson defends his belt against Forrest Griffin at UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas.
Jackson and Griffin were matched as coaches for the seventh season of “The Ultimate Fighter” reality series in an obvious attempt to create pre-fight friction between the two. Buzz surrounding the bout, however, has remained surprisingly lukewarm. The re-emergence of former titleholder Chuck Liddell and Brazilian legend Wanderlei Silva, coupled with the pending arrival of middleweight king Anderson Silva on the 205-pound scene, means there will be no shortage of potential suitors for the Jackson-Griffin victor.
Undefeated in his last six bouts, Jackson’s stock has skyrocketed since he entered the UFC in February 2007. The charismatic 30-year-old routed Liddell to capture the light heavyweight crown 14 months ago and legitimized his reign with a unanimous decision victory against Pride Fighting Championships 205-pound titleholder Dan Henderson at UFC 75 in September.
Jackson holds wins against 2000 Olympic silver medalist Matt Lindland, former UFC heavyweight champion Kevin Randleman, one-time UFC middleweight titleholder Murilo Bustamante and ex-EliteXC middleweight kingpin Murilo “Ninja” Rua. He remains the only man to beat Liddell twice.
Griffin has not set foot inside the cage since he upset Brazilian superstar Mauricio “Shogun” Rua by rear naked choke submission at UFC 76 in September. A man many viewed as the top fighter in the world at 205 pounds, Rua destroyed Jackson at Pride: Total Elimination 2005 but wilted under Griffin’s relentless pace.
One of the sport’s hardest workers, Griffin’s dedication has drawn admiration from peers and fans alike. Three years removed from his appearance on “The Ultimate Fighter,” the 29-year-old former University of Georgia security guard has sharpened his skills considerably since moving to Xtreme Couture Mixed Martial Arts in Las Vegas. Griffin — who counts victories against current World Extreme Cagefighting middleweight contender Chael Sonnen and former UFC heavyweight title challenger Jeff Monson among his 15 conquests – will enter the most significant match of his career on a two-fight winning streak.
UFC 86 also features a key middleweight tilt between Canadian striker Patrick Cote and Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Ricardo Almeida, a man who has not been defeated in six and a half years. An emerging threat at 185 pounds, Cote will carry momentum from three straight wins into a bout that could lead the victor to a title shot later this year or in early 2009.
Lightweight showdowns pairing Joe Stevenson with Gleison Tibau and Tyson Griffin with Marcus Aurelio will round out the main card, along with a welterweight match between the American Kickboxing Academy’s Josh Koscheck and the well-traveled and underappreciated Chris Lytle.
FIGHT FORECAST
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (28-6, 3-0 UFC) vs. Forrest Griffin (15-4, 6-2 UFC)
Whoever said uneasy lies the head that wears a crown never met a man like Jackson. While Griffin should provide a worthy challenge, the champion has too many advantages to be denied here. Jackson’s vastly underrated boxing skills could come into play in a big way in his second title defense.
Prediction: Jackson by TKO
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Middleweight
Patrick Cote (12-4, 3-4 UFC) vs. Ricardo Almeida (9-2, 2-2 UFC)
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie, Almeida’s ground skills are world class. One of only two men — Genki Sudo is the other — to submit Nate Marquardt, he will have a decided advantage over Cote if the fighters leave their feet. Cote’s one-punch knockout power makes him a threat against almost anyone, but he has shown weakness in the submission defense department.
Prediction: Almeida by submission
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Lightweight
Joe Stevenson (28-8, 5-2 UFC) vs. Gleison Tibau (15-5, 3-2 UFC)
Much of the storyline in this lightweight pairing revolves around how Stevenson will respond to the beating he absorbed at the hands of reigning 155-pound champion B.J. Penn in January. Sliced open by a first-round elbow, the Californian eventually succumbed to a rear naked choke; it was the first time in eight years an opponent had finished him in a fight. That said, his skill and experience should be enough to carry him past the American Top Team’s Tibau, who has done little to distinguish himself in the UFC. Keep in mind, Tibau has never been submitted.
Prediction: Stevenson by decision
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Welterweight
Josh Koscheck (10-2, 8-2 UFC) vs. Chris Lytle (25-15-5, 4-7 UFC)
Love him or hate him, Koscheck remains a strong presence in the 170-pound division. The four-time collegiate All-American wrestler stopped the fast-rising Justin Hazelett on strikes in March and could be a win or two away from title contention. The 30-year-old American Kickboxing Academy product has lost only once — to current welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre — in his last seven fights. A cagy fighter whose dangerous standing and on the ground, Lytle has always proven tough to handle. The 33-year-old Indianan has never been submitted in 45 career bouts and has been finished only twice — on cuts by Joe Riggs and Thiago Alves.
Prediction: Koscheck by decision
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Lightweight
Tyson Griffin (11-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. Marcus Aurelio (16-5, 2-1 UFC)
An inability to finish has kept Griffin on the outside looking in when it comes to the UFC’s lightweight elite. Still the only man to defeat reigning World Extreme Cagefighting featherweight champion Urijah Faber, his last four bouts have gone to the judges. That streak seems unlikely to end here, as the American Top Team’s Aurelio has yet to be finished in his 21-fight career. In fact, four of Aurelio’s five losses — including a 2006 defeat to Takanori Gomi — have come by split decision.
Prediction: Aurelio by submission
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Heavyweight
Gabriel Gonzaga (8-3, 4-2 UFC) vs. Justin McCully (8-3-2, 1-0 UFC)
Gonzaga has not been the same fighter since Randy Couture grinded him into the mat at UFC 74 last summer. The Brazilian remains one of the heavyweight division’s most feared submission fighters, but his conditioning has left a lot to be desired. None of his 11 fights have gone the distance. McCully, meanwhile, has fought only three times in five years and has not competed since he coasted to an uninspiring decision win against Dutch kickboxer Antoni Hardonk in April 2007.
Prediction: Gonzaga by submission
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Lightweight
Jorge Gurgel (12-3, 3-2 UFC) vs. Cole Miller (13-3, 2-1 UFC)
One of three American Top Team members on the card, Miller finds himself on the rebound after he succumbed to strikes against the energetic Jeremy Stephens at UFC Fight Night 12 in January. At 6-foot-1, he will have a considerable height and reach advantage against Gurgel, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt notorious for ditching his grappling skills in favor of stand-up wars.
Prediction: Miller by decision
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Lightweight
Melvin Guillard (21-7-2, 3-3 UFC) vs. Dennis Siver (11-5, 1-2 UFC)
Guillard’s UFC career can be summed up in two words: unrealized potential. As physically gifted as anyone in the lightweight division, the enigmatic Louisianan has not appeared in the Octagon since he sandwiched submission losses to Joe Stevenson and Rich Clementi around a suspension for suspected cocaine use. Siver has dropped two of his three bouts in the UFC, and the 29-year-old German needs a victory here to avoid becoming an afterthought.
Prediction: Guillard by TKO
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Lightweight
Corey Hill (2-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Justin Buchholz (7-2, 0-1 UFC)
Still rather raw and unpolished, the 6-foot-5 Hill has put root downs with the Miletich Fighting Systems camp in Bettendorf, Iowa, and many see stardom in his not-too-distant future. First, he will have to negotiate the challenges presented by Buchholz, a former Icon Sport lightweight champion. Buchholz submitted to Matt Wiman in his UFC debut six months ago. None of the Alaskan’s last seven fights have reached the second round.
Prediction: Hill by TKO
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